Betting Surgery - Gambling and Betting Advice

Canbet, one of the better bookies

2008-03-31T19:09:40+02:00

As mentioned in Session 3 below, this is a link to Canbet, one of the better bookies who offer value, and odds above starting price. One great thing they offer is a 25% rebate on any net losses. Yes, you heard that right, they give you 25% cash back if you happen to make a loss in a months betting. Click through to Canbet to see the detail.

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Betting Advice Session 3 - Golden Rules of Betting

2008-03-30T14:17:43+02:00

Hi and welcome to our Betting Surgery.

Today, we are giving you some Golden Rules of successful betting.

Golden Rules of Betting

1 Slowly slowly catchee monkey
2 Look for value
3 Never bet more than you can afford to lose
4 Keep a record of your bets
5 Keep to the staking plan
6 If you have a system you are betting, don't go outside the rules
7 Don't always use one bookmaker. Use bookmakers who offer value better than starting price
8 Never chase your losses
9 Never chase your losses
10 Never chase your losses

Did I say that last bit enough times? I say it to myself everyday, and at least once a week I chase my losses, and come out worse. It’s the instinct of the mug punter, of which I’m trying to rid myself of the virus, but having been one between the age of sixteen to about five years ago its hard work. The way I try and overcome the urge is to look back at my betting records and stick to the staking plan. If the system you are using to pick your horses is sound then you can see from your records that the winners and profits will come eventually, you just need to bide your time.

The number one rule “Slowly slowly catchee monkey” really means; take your time, small bets, don’t rush, build up slowly, take some profits for your hard work and buy something nice to enjoy, because betting is hard work. If you try and be greedy you will fail. You might win one big bet, but you will put that all back on the next bets. Bet slowly in small amounts, and if you don't find value, don't bet. There is always another day, and better opportunities.

Use several bookmakers, and find ones who offer value by offering odds above Starting Price, for example Canbet (see link above). Bet just before the race start. I usually do three minutes before if I’m using the mobile to call as they get busy before the off, or I wait until about one minute before if I’m online. You will on average get better odds than starting price. And when you win on the big priced horses you’ll be amazed how much better.

The maths of betting looks complex, but a few pointers can help you see value. For example, a horse that is 2/1 starting price has a 33% chance of winning, according to the major bookies. What most people forget is that the bookie is there to make profit, so he has factored in a little bit for himself, called an over round or percentage book. If you looked back at the statistics of all the 2/1 winners, you will see that the actual percentage is just over 31%. Converting that to a price (1/0.31) gives you 3.2 or 2.2/1. On the better bookies sites, there is a smaller over round, so you should be getting better than starting price.

That's all for now and good luck,

Betting Surgery

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Betting Advice Session 2 - Betting Banks

2008-02-21T21:46:05+01:00

Hi and welcome to our Betting Surgery.

Today we are going to explain about betting banks.

A lot of tipster services will tell you how they’ve made thousands over the last year, but they forget to tell you the small print; that they assumed £100 on each advised tip. We've even seen some tipsters use £500 as their base stake on a race. I don’t know about you but I would have a heart attack watching a race where I had £100 running on a horse who’s got to clear twelve big fences in front of him. For me, betting £100 per race is over the top, especially when you can't afford it.

We bet using a staking plan. The following sounds complex, but once you’ve tried it a few times it’s like riding a bike;

1 Choose the system you wish to bet on.

2 Choose a bank limit. Only what you can afford and only what you have to gamble with. For example £1000.

3 A bet is always 2% of the bank. In this case £20. This allows for any losing runs, which are inevitable in betting.

4 If the first bet loses, take off the losses from the bank. For example £1000-£20 leaves £980 in the bank. If the first bet wins, add the profit to the bank. For example if I bet £20 @ 5/1, my profit is £100, so new bank is £1100.

5 Your next bet is then 2% of the new bank, which I round up to nearest £1.

6 Keep repeating above, adding profit or taking off losses from the bank for each bet.

7 When the bank reaches double the original amount, remove half the bank as profit, to get back to original bank. In this case removing £1000 in profit leaves £1000 bank. This ensures that you don’t start to build up too big a bet per race, and allows you to reap the rewards of your efforts!

8 Start again with original bank.

9 Buy something nice with your profits.

You can vary the amount you remove from the bank as personal profit, depending on your circumstances. If you leave all the profit in the bank, and the system is going well, then the amount to bet builds up very quickly into £100’s, and even becomes hard to get bets on at good prices, so I wouldn’t advise this.

That's all for now and good luck,

Betting Surgery

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Betting Advice Session 1 - Value and Odds

2008-02-11T23:58:30+01:00

Hi and welcome to our Betting Surgery.

Session 1 - Value and odds.

The only way to make money in betting is to find value in the price, or odds, that are given, such that the chance of winning is better than the odds on offer. A horses chances in a race are all about probability theory, scary stuff about maths, but I'm going to try and put it nice and simply.

If I looked up the next race I could pick out a horse “Gonnawin” who is the 2/1 favourite, and an outsider “Nochance” at 33/1, but what do those odds really mean ?

To convert a horses odds into it's chance of winning, we simply turn the numbers upside down, add the numbers together and put that on the bottom. We turn that into a percentage chance by multiplying that by 100.

For example, with the 2/1 favourite, we turn the numbers upside down which gives 1/2, then add both numbers together and put that on the bottom, which gives us 1/3. So our horses chances of winning are 1 in 3, or multiply by 100 to get the percentage chance of 33%.

So what the bookies are offering you is, every time this horse runs at the same course, in the same conditions, same jockey, against the same other horses, the bookie thinks it will win 1 race in every 3 runnings. For the 33/1 outsider, the bookies are offering you that the horse will win 1 race in 34, or just under a 3% chance of winning.

What you need to find is the value odds. If you think that “Gonnawin” has a better chance than 33%, due to the fact he has won 2 out of 3 races on this course under today's ground conditions, then you have found value in the bet.

By continuously finding value in bets, you are guaranteed to make a profit. If I bet 10 horses in different races at 2/1 putting £10 on each, and we have found value such that 4 out of 10 (40%) win, rather than the expected 33%, then we make a profit. That profit is 4 x £10 x 2/1 = £80, less the 6 x £10 on losing horses, gives us a profit of £20 for an investment of £100. A tidy 20% return on investment, much better than any bank account can offer :-)

In the next session we will be talking about how to use a betting bank to withstand losing sequences.

That's all for now and good luck,

Betting Surgery

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Welcome to our Betting Surgery

2008-02-08T02:30:25+01:00

Hi and welcome to our Betting Surgery.

Over the coming months we'll be providing betting advice for the novice or hardened gamblers amongst you.

We won't be preaching to you about the sins of gambling, but we'll be giving advice on how to better use the money you want to gamble with, and try to help you turn a profit.

How many of you have signed up for the latest scam system, only to find after several painful months that you're leaking money left, right and centre. Well we've been there too, and we want to impart our knowledge to you, so you don't make the same mistakes.

We'll be posting regular surgery sessions to teach you the art of safer gambling.

That's all for now and good luck,

Betting Surgery

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